because the theory was created via presented evidence from sources they personally believe to be “true”. or are formulated by what you would logically assume someone else would do, based on history, personality, peer group, and political alignment, etc. a theory is an assumption based on logic. for instance, i think the ruling class will do whatever means possible to maintain and achieve new levels of power. logic and history dictates that would come at the cost of regular working class people. so when presented with a situation like for example, the middle east. we can assume based on history that the US government is primarily controlled by capital. and capital only cares about infinite growth which requires consumption. and the US government is willing to lie to the masses in order to motivate them to do the work of capital.
corruption isnt a theory, its merely in this case a symptom of personal motivation, which allocates another block of evidence which leads to the theory, or logic, to be true, or self evident.
ive personally “predicted” trumps first and second election, the AI boom, and its related consumption of hardware and capital. as well as the invasion of iran, the oil shortage, the round about merger of the israeli and US army. and the eventual failure of that war, which will ultimately lead to the collapse of what was the previous idea of the US, as a nation. and its descent into fascism, and technofeudalism. i “predicted” concentration camps, forced human testing, torture, rape, and murder in and around said camps, of immigrants and dissidents. the massive increase in antisemitsm due to the actions of the israeli government and its genocide, and the purpose driven confusion by social media platforms and the powers that be, between anti zionism and anti semestism. for the greater purpose of creating the illusion of prophecy, for the sake of wealth extraction and power expansion by the ruling class. ive also predicted that canada would also become surveillance state complete with digital ID, and would band together with US corporations like palantir to build said state. all this and a large amount of smaller yet still considerable “predictions” around geopolitics and the actions of capital.
all of this over the last several years, mainly since covid when i had the time to sit down and read a shit load of books on history, psychology, economics, political systems, and general geopolitical relations. and deep need to consume information from the most seemingly unbiased news sources.
its all a vague guess, or an assumption of logic based on a foundation of basic knowledge in these aspects. its not amazing, its just like throwing a dart at a dart board, it usually lands somewhere on the board, but the general thesis remains the same. and more often than not, when it comes to predicting the moves of capital, its skewed towards the option that allows massive wealth extraction and the consolidation of power. and that usually predicts the outcomes in most geopolitical situations.
i assume this a common sense take. read, verify your sources to the best of your ability, assume people who have done bad things for money and power will likely continue to do bad things for money and power. but when it comes to verifying facts and news today, its incredibly difficult to do so. the waters have been muddied, and vast swathes of data was erased and replaced. open archives were attacked by the trump administration, and they have been actively working in tandem with big tech to suppress and erase anything that threatens them, which isnt a new tactic for any wannabe totalitarian state.
its the entire premise of 1984, when power is consolidated to a point, the views of the masses overwhelmingly reflect the wants of the ruling class. and everything else can be skewed, erased, or manipulated to serve that end. which means that trusting institutions that are beholden to “the party”, means taking their view of history at face value. and that view ultimately means your submission to the state.
so you either have to read between the lines, and make logical assumptions based on either what you already know, or on sources that you believe to be trustworthy, hopefully based on logical evidence that they are trustworthy. who owns them, what are their beliefs, overall narrative, and where that eventually leads, etc etc.
basically, all we can do now is trust your gut. and do whatever it takes to work towards a future where we take care of eachother and the environement. everything else is just noise and spin to keep you working and stupid.
i did some calculations a few years back with some friends on a whim during a sidetracked DnD campaign. we came to the conclusion that capitalism is directly and indirectly responsible for over 20+ million recorded deaths annually all over the world, as a conservative estimate
main contributers were poverty, disease, war, lack of quality healthcare, and state violence.
we also found that the existence of 1 billionaire has an annual death count, purely by subtracting that money from the economic cycle and direct aid. i cant remember now, but it was in the thousands of deaths per billion denied to those in need by hoarding wealth.
billionaires are violent, purely through their existence. and we shouldnt tolerate any form of violence against us.
we should sincerely be dragging these fuckers into the street and ripping them to pieces.